Covid-19 Lockdown Reality Check

According to experts, lockdowns are in place to flatten the curve of the progression of the pandemic.


Some people are missing the point because they naively think the government will somehow get rid of the virus at the end of the lockdowns, so life goes back to normal.

Bear in mind that:

  • Flattening the curve means slowing down the disease so that hospitals can cope with the sick. It does not mean eradicating it altogether.


  • No government may be able to eradicate the disease this year. It’s here until a cure or a vaccine is found and proven to be effective.


  •  It takes 18 to 24 months to  make, test and assess the efficacy of a vaccine. So, one year is a ballpark estimate – except the unusual happens.


  • Therefore, normal will not exist for at least a year. Economies will keep tanking globally and there are likely to be rolling lockdowns.


  • Even when lockdowns are over, tourism and hospitality industry, and many others will not see an increase in business for at least a year. That means unemployment and low liquidity will persist, because until a vaccine is found people will continue to self-isolate.


  • The only respite would be if thousands of infected people recover so that there is some level of herd immunity. Herd immunity is “the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination”.


  • Even then, there would still be fear and people will remain isolated until safety is guaranteed via a proven cure or  vaccine.


  • So, the wise thing to do is to minimise exposure, support each other and support the government in educating the ignorant about the reality.


  • Again, lifting the lockdown does not mean the virus is no longer around. Until an effective cure or vaccine is found, normal life is dead. But hope is alive!

Stay at home as much as you can if you want to see the rebirth of normal life.


NP/Tony Ekata



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